Hurricane Erin - Voyage Planning as we Head South
- Chris Leigh-Jones
- Aug 18
- 3 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
Nuuk, Greenland, Monday 18th August 2025. We Have a Problem.
The First Problem
We are in Nuuk and need to head south. The weather is deteriorating rapidly as fall approaches.
The Second Problem
The hurricane moving north from the Caribbean is named Erin. Hurricane Erin quickly intensified from a tropical storm to the first Atlantic hurricane of 2025. It reached Category 5 status before weakening to a Category 4 storm. Currently, it is moving through Atlantic waters just north of the Caribbean. Its center is expected to remain at sea, roughly parallel to the coast, before turning east around 45 degrees latitude.
The Initial Voyage Plan
Our original plan was to travel 850 miles to St. John's on the east coast of Newfoundland. From there, we would navigate around the coast to Halifax to change crew before heading south to New York and beyond. Once we set our course for St. John's, there are no real alternative options, with a voyage duration of 4-5 days.
Issues to Consider
We are using "Windy" for our voyage planning. We are also relying on our Ice Pilots, Nick and Estella, for advice on what to expect.
Timing
A frontal system is passing through East Greenland today. It will clear with falling seas by Tuesday PM. Therefore, we can leave on Tuesday and head southwest towards the Labrador Coast. The nearest landfall is 600 NM away, which is about 3 days at 7-8 knots. We can shorten this distance and make landfall further north if necessary, shaving off about 100 miles or half a day from this leg.
Wind and Waves
Over the next three days, the wind will shift from our beam to astern as we reach the halfway point. The seas are also expected to fall, generally aligning with our intended direction. They will be on our stern as we approach the Labrador coast.
Erin - This is a concerning situation. This storm is currently a Category 4 and may not be survivable. Erin is predicted to ride the Gulf Stream north along the US and Canadian coasts before heading east into the Atlantic at about latitude 45 degrees N. The Gulf Stream is warm, so Erin is unlikely to weaken. As it stands, Erin remains a Category 4 storm.
Wave heights in the Labrador Sea are predicted to be 1.5-3.5 meters in our direction of travel, which we can handle easily. However, off the Grand Banks, where Erin is closest, wave heights are expected to reach 10-15 meters and be chaotic. We must avoid that area at all costs.
Customs Clearance
We will need to clear Canadian Customs before arriving in Halifax, NS. The entry ports are either too far north on the Labrador coast (e.g., Pond Inlet) or too far south in Nova Scotia. Newfoundland has restricted access due to the impending weather. We contacted the Canadian Border Services Agency to explain our predicament. They informed us, "We have logged your call sign (M0I07). We (CBSA) are not in the business of putting lives at risk. Call in from any place you seek shelter and update us until you reach a port of entry." The CBSA truly are the nicest customs officials I have ever encountered!
Range
We have approximately 2500 nautical miles of fuel in our tanks. However, we must also consider our stability, as conditions are likely to get rough. Therefore, we should plan for about 1000 miles, leaving plenty to spare and keeping a reserve in our low center tank. We will need to refuel before reaching Halifax.
Closing the Labrador Coast
We need to find a port that offers protection from the weather in all directions, especially if Erin decides to veer north. There are a few good options, with Cartwright (53.42N 57.00W) being our first choice. It offers quick access from the ocean.
Depending on the weather, we can continue from there, ducking into the protected Gulf of St. Lawrence at Belle Isle. Once through Belle Isle, we will have shelter on both the Newfoundland and Quebec coastlines, no longer exposed to the Atlantic.
Job done. Fingers crossed, batten down the hatches, and we leave tomorrow.
Chris Leigh-Jones